Why did Toyota build Rav4 EV? Why hydrogen after 2014 ?

[smkettner]

Time will tell what program will cost less after 2018.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Time will tell what program will cost less after 2018.

Well, after 2017, for the 2018 model year.

All credits will be capped at 3 per car, and the percentage of credits goes up from 0.79% to 2%.

I'm guessing a nice Tesla Model E will be the 2018 Toyota SupraE. I'm not kidding. No way will a hydrogen car get the job done in 2018.

 

[miimura]

All credits will be capped at 3 per car, and the percentage of credits goes up from 0.79% to 2%.

I'm guessing a nice Tesla Model E will be the 2018 Toyota SupraE. I'm not kidding. No way will a hydrogen car get the job done in 2018.

The question is, how much will Toyota have to discount that car to attract enough buyers? People will see through the fact that it's a cosmetically different Model E. I would insist on a $7.5k discount vs. comparable Model E just because I'd rather support Tesla than help Toyota hit their numbers.

 

[TonyWilliams]

The extremely limited production Toyota hydrogen car is $97,000:

http://insideevs.com/2015-toyota-honda-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-expected-priced-approximately-97750-yikes/#comment-413295

 

[user 340]

The extremely limited production Toyota hydrogen car is $97,000:

What a screaming great deal! :lol:

OK, I can see a few being sold to collectors for the novelty factor. I suspect that Toyota will have to offer leases based on a much-reduced cost, and then they will mostly be used in fleets that have convenient access to H2 facilities.

 

[smkettner]

Toyota is giving $9,000 off the RAV4-EV and to be fair has 3x the amount to give on the fuel cell vehicle for equivalent credits.
That still leaves $70,000 to amortize into the lease. Can't imagine how this saves money for compliance.

 

[fooljoe]

Toyota is giving $9,000 off the RAV4-EV and to be fair has 3x the amount to give on the fuel cell vehicle for equivalent credits.
That still leaves $70,000 to amortize into the lease. Can't imagine how this saves money for compliance.

Clearly it's not such a simple equation. They might think that going to HFCs instead of EVs makes them look more "innovative", so they're banking on some sort of PR value there. Because of the non-existent infrastructure they know nobody will take them out of California. They will reclaim them all after the leases are up so they don't have to worry about continuously supporting the cars. They might've taken advantage of some government money on the table specifically allocated to hydrogen for their R&D costs. Showing how nobody wants the cars might make it easier for them to just get rid of the whole CARB quota thing going forward. Who knows what else...

 

[TonyWilliams]

Toyota is giving $9,000 off the RAV4-EV and to be fair has 3x the amount to give on the fuel cell vehicle for equivalent credits.
That still leaves $70,000 to amortize into the lease. Can't imagine how this saves money for compliance.

Clearly it's not such a simple equation. They might think that going to HFCs instead of EVs makes them look more "innovative", so they're banking on some sort of PR value there. Because of the non-existent infrastructure they know nobody will take them out of California. They will reclaim them all after the leases are up so they don't have to worry about continuously supporting the cars. They might've taken advantage of some government money on the table specifically allocated to hydrogen for their R&D costs. Showing how nobody wants the cars might make it easier for them to just get rid of the whole CARB quota thing going forward. Who knows what else...

History does repeat. The last time the Rav4 EV project ended (and CARB folded under pressure of a lawsuit) in 2000-2003, all the talk from President Bush on down the pecking order was hydrogen... That never materialized.

Big oil needs hydrogen instead of electric cars, but truthfully the car makers don't want either, EV's or hydrogen because they make money building lower cost oil cars that they build by the millions every year.

They are saying in the article quoted above that hydrogen will be cheaper ($97,000 minus about 30%) in the 2020's. Hydrogen won't sell then either, and neither will electric, until the $20k-$30k the refuels fast and has 200-300 mile range.

Protocol .......... US Deployed . World Deployed .... US Cars .... Worldwide Cars
Hydrogen ...........24........................40....................100.............200
Frankenplug ...... 10 ........................50....................100........... 500 ... (moribund)
CHAdeMO ......... 600 ................... 4,000 ............. 50,000 .... 130,000 (growing fast)
Supercharger .... 400 ......................450 .............. 30,000 ..... 40,000 (extreme growth)

 

[TonyWilliams]

As expected...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-09/tesla-says-battery-supply-deal-for-toyota-rav4-ev-to-end.html#disqus_thread

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), the electric-car maker planning to build the world’s largest battery plant, said its deal to supply Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) with battery packs and motors for a rechargeable crossover will conclude this year.

Toyota, which owns a 2.4 percent stake in Palo Alto, California-based Tesla, said in May 2012 it would buy the company’s components for 2,600 electric RAV4 EVs over three years. Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive officer, had said he expected Toyota to extend the agreement that was initially worth as much as $100 million, based on a July 2011 filing.

“Toyota is expected to end the current RAV4 EV model this year,” Tesla said yesterday in a quarterly filing. While the supply deal generated $15.1 million of revenue for Tesla in the quarter that ended March 31, “our production activities under this program are expected to end in 2014,” Tesla said.

Conclusion of the Toyota program comes as Tesla expands global sales of Model S sedans, priced starting at $71,000, and readies the electric Model X crossover for delivery in 2015 as well as a lower-priced rechargeable sedan due in two to three years. The company also is ramping up supplies of components for investor Daimler AG (DAI)’s electric Mercedes B-Class car as it plans a battery “gigafactory” to cut lithium-ion cell costs by 30 percent.


Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Toyota Motor Corp., which owns a 2.4 percent stake in Palo Alto, California-based Tesla... Read More
Toyota hasn’t announced plans to conclude the RAV4 EV program, said John Hanson, a company spokesman.

[typical double speak... of course they didn't announce it or it might be even harder to unload the albatross car. The fact that they are only building 2600, yes, that's been announced many times, and that they will have a hydrogen car for CARB-ZEV compliance - Tony]

“This was a project for a specific number of vehicles that we planned to sell for a specific number of years,” Hanson said. “We have not made any announcement about the relationship or what we’ll do with Tesla in the future.”

California Sales

Models such as the RAV4 EV sell mainly in California, which requires large automakers to offer some pollution-free vehicles. Toyota has sold 1,594 electric RAV4s since 2012 through April, according to reports from the company.

In 2015, Toyota is to begin California sales of a hydrogen fuel cell sedan, another type of zero-emission vehicle that fulfills California’s ZEV mandate.

Tesla rose 2.1 percent to $182.26 yesterday at the close in New York and has gained 21 percent this year. Toyota’s American depositary receipts rose 0.7 percent to $108.87 in New York and have fallen 11 percent this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jamie Butters at [email protected]

 

[rcrisp123]

Tesla discontinue supplying toyota with its bateries. The result: No more RAV 4 EVs....Does that mean RAV 4EV becomes an endangered species??

 

[rcrisp123]

Tesla to stop supplying batteries for Toyota
Chris Woodyard, USA TODAY 11:36 a.m. EDT May 12, 2014
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With its own crossover in the works, electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors says it is going to stop supplying battery packs and motors for Toyota, which uses them in the electric RAV4.

"Toyota is expected to end the current RAV4 EV model this year," Tesla said in a quarterly financial disclosure filed Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It says the deal was worth $15.1 million.

Toyota doesn't break out sale of the electric version of its RAV4, but it's fair to say it's a small-volume vehicle. Yet it has roughly the same powerplant as the Tesla Model S for up to half the cost. The electric RAV4 retails for about $50,000.

Tesla's filing said the company recognized revenue of $15.1 million in automotive sales revenue under the deal during the three months ended March 31. that compared with $14.4 million for the same period last year.

Meanwhile, Tesla is working on its own crossover. The Model X, as it is known, has been delayed, but when it hits the market it should be fairly startling, with upward-opening gullwing doors for backseat passengers. It is likely, however, to cost a lot more more than the electric RAV4.

 

[DevinL]

The RAV4 EV has been an endangered species since before sales even started. The deal was for 2,600 cars. Elon thought Toyota would re-up at the end of the agreement and it turns out Toyota is unlikely to do that. I think most of us knew that would be the outcome going in.

It would be much more of a surprise to see Toyota actually continue to make RAV4 EVs beyond 2,600 than it would be for them to stop doing so.

 

[davewill]

It's no news around here:

http://www.myrav4ev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=379

http://www.myrav4ev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=97

 

[smkettner]

Depends on the cost and volume of the fuel cell vehicle program.
I could see the RAV4-EV coming back in 2017 to 2019.

 

[Dianne]

I'm going to need therapy when this is all over.

 

[adjackson3]

perhaps we can get Toyota decision makers to get their heads examined too. this could be such a good car.

 

[crxpilot]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2014/05/11/tesla-toyota-batteries/8961905/


With its own crossover in the works, electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors says it is going to stop supplying battery packs and motors for Toyota, which uses them in the electric RAV4.

"Toyota is expected to end the current RAV4 EV model this year," Tesla said in a quarterly financial disclosure filed Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It says the deal was worth $15.1 million.

Toyota doesn't break out sale of the electric version of its RAV4, but it's fair to say it's a small-volume vehicle. Yet it has roughly the same powerplant as the Tesla Model S for up to half the cost. The electric RAV4 retails for about $50,000.

Tesla's filing said the company recognized revenue of $15.1 million in automotive sales revenue under the deal during the three months ended March 31. that compared with $14.4 million for the same period last year.

Meanwhile, Tesla is working on its own crossover. The Model X, as it is known, has been delayed, but when it hits the market it should be fairly startling, with upward-opening gullwing doors for backseat passengers. It is likely, however, to cost a lot more more than the electric RAV4.

 

[jspearman]

Toyota can make 9 credits for hydrogen car, 3 for electric, in CA, so despite the absurd cost of the platinum in the car, it's still cheaper for them to pretend hydrogen cars are viable and dump Tesla's battery/motor.

They will get government grants to build a few more hydrogen stations, make enough cars to meet the ZEV requirements, and when they sell enough it will disappear, too, and Toyota will have to find something else to shoot at.

I'm mad that CARB is favoring Hyundai and Toyota's cynical play here over a California-grown company that is a shining light of American manufacturing and entrepreneurship. Plus, Toyota is moving HQ to Texas.

 

[smkettner]

Toyota can make 9 credits for hydrogen car, 3 for electric, in CA, so despite the absurd cost of the platinum in the car, it's still cheaper for them to pretend hydrogen cars are viable and dump Tesla's battery/motor.

Yes the good part is Toyota only needs to sell 1/3 as many FC ZEVs.
The bad part is Toyota has to sell 1/3 as many FC ZEVs. Good luck on that. Market is about saturated with Honda Clarity. Both of them.

Lower cost to develop and sell FC vs buy a drive train from Tesla? I have my doubts.

 

[jspearman]

I'm curious, will Toyota let lthose who are leasing buy the car at the end of the lease, or are they taking them back for the crusher? I know the fuel cells are lease only.