Why did Toyota build Rav4 EV? Why hydrogen after 2014 ?

[drmanny3]

I also see Hydrogen powered vehicles as a very long term solution. There are several problems with respect to H2 fuel. First producing it from a more complex molecule means it will take energy to create. Building tanks that can withstand accidents will be costly, and they consume space. The infrastructure will be very expensive to create. Fossil based fuels will be around for some time. Natural gas while a producer of CO2 when consumed is still preferable to diesel fuel and gasoline. It has its own limitations. I see the auto industry as showcasing their ability to produce technological wonders to show others that they can do it. Hybrids and plug in hybrids for now are the most practical and least expensive, until we develop better battery technology. Everything has its costs as well as pros and cons. The important thing is that we continue to push for energy efficiency and alternatives to fossil based fuels and energy. The earth will be here even without us. It will probably heal itself awaiting the next influx of inhabitants.

 

[Incredulocious]

Interesting... Elon talking about possibility of future partnership with Toyota in "2-3 years":
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/us-tesla-motors-toyota-idUKKBN0H30K520140908

Note the official "no comment" from Toyota.

––––––
And story now being carried elsewhere:
http://insideevs.com/elon-musk-expects-significant-deal-toyota-2-3-years-higher-volume-rav4-ev/
http://www.autoblog.com/2014/09/09/tesla-toyota-partnership/
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094301_more-tesla-toyota-plans-in-the-pipeline-musk-hints-at-possibility

 

[smkettner]

All depends on if Toyota can move the new fuel cell vehicles. It would appear Elon is thinking FC will move slowly.

Stock is too rich to imply a complete buyout/merger.

 

[TonyWilliams]

“The auto companies need to make zero-emission vehicles for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and other regulations, such as the California Air Resources Board’s zero emissions mandate, so they need to decide which pathway, EVs or FCVs, will lose the least amount of money. When most [manufacturers] investigate the two technologies, they see that FVCs offer more room for performance improvement and cost reduction potential. And that is why you will be seeing more fuel cells in the future”, says Former Toyota executive Bill Reinert, who recently retired as national manager of Toyota Motor Corporation’s advanced technology group.

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/interview_bill_reinert_bullish_on_hybrids_skeptical_about_electric_cars/2810/

http://insideevs.com/former-toyota-exec-future-of-electric-cars-is-dim/#comment-566470

 

[kiwiguy]

Well that's some reverse logic worthy of a Dilbert cartoon.

I believe there is lots of room for cost reduction in fusion power also!

 

[TonyWilliams]

Well that's some reverse logic worthy of a Dilbert cartoon.

I believe there is lots of room for cost reduction in fusion power also!

There's some "cost reduction" in my frequent car acquisitions. I guess I should order a fully loaded Tesla Model X to increase my cost reduction-ness.

 

[dcxplant]

What in the world is pushing FCVs?

Could a factor be that. FCV has more maintenance required than an EV? The RAV4EV is almost maintenance free. Dealer maintenance is firmware updates and fluid changes every 5 years.

The consumables, tires and brakes, will most likely be done at specialty shops, not at a dealership.

Imagine if the US fleet of vehicles went 100% EV tomorrow; how much revenue would dealerships lose to lost maintenance?

What maintenance is required of FCVs?

An interesting point brought up in the article linked above was Saudi Arabia being a huge supplier.....

Heaven forbid we power our cars with locally produced electricity!

 

[jon]

Tony, I am new here (I am a BEV fan, I have 3 electric cars)

It's been a while since you first started this thread. I read the entire thread just now. Can you give us an update as to where big autos stand today?

How has politics, economics, and technology, changed since your first post? Please give us a quick update as to each of the big auto makers in regards to their electric car (or fuel cell) programs. I see VW e-Golf is a great product. Nissan Leaf has been doing pretty well, especially in the west coast. Tesla's Gigafactory is being constructed. Toyota doing FCV. Others on this forum please feel free to chime in as well.

 

[4EVEREV]

Toyota- Pulling off the best smoke and mirrors trick since the surprise release of the Prius. The more they distract the more time they work on a long-term EV solution.

 

[TonyWilliams]

First, if we understand that the entire industry sees Zero Emission as just a regulatory burden. Yes, there are exceptions, like Tesla. Even Mitsubishi. And to a large extend, Nissan. I'll even throw in BMW and GM. But, the rest would love for it all to go away.

Here's my updated report of the Zero Emission players:

BMW - i3, including gasoline hybrid version dubbed "REx" that gets Zero Emission credit. With many, many years of talk of a hydrogen car, there doesn't seem to be major company support to fall in step behind Toyota or Daimler

Fiat/Chrysler - 500e (CEO of Fiat famously said, "Don't buy my car"). They are going to do squat unless forced to

Ford - Focus EV, hydrogen by 2018? Or, a more capable EV? Nobody really knows for sure, including Ford

General Motors - Spark EV, future Sonic platform Bolt EV, an extremely low possibility of hydrogen by 2018-2020

Honda - absolutley hydrogen, will hedge bets with an EV or two,. They seem to be bouncing around with this a lot lately

Hyundai - absolutley hydrogen, but may hedge bets with an EV

Kia - Soul EV, other EVs in the future

Mazda - Demio EV or EXTREMELY low production hydrogen car with Toyota technology, perhaps even just a license deal.

Daimler/Mercedes - B-Class ED, Smart ED, hydrogen by 2018, Tesla Model S like car by 2020 called eLux. They will likely have both hydrogen and EV.

Nissan - LEAF, eNV-2000, probably other future EVs (perhaps hydrogen in Japan, though)

Toyota - absolutely hydrogen only in USA / Europe / Japan. No EV unless they cannot sell hydrogen, like China.

Volkswagen - eGolf, hydrogen by 2018?, 310 mile Audi Q6 e-tron SUV, and 265 mile Porsche sedan for 2017/2018 "Tesla Model S competitor". Like Dailmer, they will have both.


Auto manufacturers that are NOT subject to CARB-ZEV due to their small sales in California. These additional manufacturers are required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but would be allowed to meet their obligation with Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV):

NOTE: No company in the following group has planned to market a hydrogen car.

Tesla - Roadster, Model S, Model X, Model 3 (all EV)

Mitsubishi - iMiev (EV)

Fuji Heavy Industry (Subaru) - ?

Jaguar Land Rover - 186 mile EV

Volvo - plug-in hybrid CUV, unknown ZEV?

Aston Martin Lagonda - DBX EV

 

[jon]

Thank you Tony, for providing an excellent summary of each auto manufacturer.

JB Straubel, CTO of Tesla, has been saying they will get to $100 per kWh by 2020. That's only 4.5 years from today.

Have you studied the subject? $100 by 2020? Is that realistic? Tesla/Panasonic at $100 by 2020, and followed soon after by Samsung, LG, and others. (Nissan has been at this a long time now, what's their cost in $/kWh today? Is it true LG Chem will be supplying the Leaf soon?)

If so, how do you see this industry play out? 4.5 years is not a very long time!

 

[user 340]

Given that Toyota sold only a few RAV4EVs and will likely sell < 200 Mirais in CA in 2015, will they meet their ZEV sales requirements this year?

I don't know how many credits they need, but I think that meeting the goal will be tough, especially if Mirais are slow to materialize here. I would be very interested in learning whether they are buying any ZEV credits from EV manufacturers (Tesla, Nissan?); that would be pretty ironic given their stated disdain for EVs.

Does anybody have any information on this topic?

 

[fromport]

Given that Toyota sold only a few RAV4EVs and will likely sell < 200 Mirais in CA in 2015, will they meet their ZEV sales requirements this year?

I don't know how many credits they need, but I think that meeting the goal will be tough, especially if Mirais are slow to materialize here. I would be very interested in learning whether they are buying any ZEV credits from EV manufacturers (Tesla, Nissan?); that would be pretty ironic given their stated disdain for EVs.

Does anybody have any information on this topic?

I've heard (on a recent EV meeting) Toyota got another meeting with Tesla for another series of carb complient EV cars and Tesla basically gave them the finger.
just a rumor though

 

[4EVEREV]

Given that Toyota sold only a few RAV4EVs and will likely sell < 200 Mirais in CA in 2015, will they meet their ZEV sales requirements this year?

I don't know how many credits they need, but I think that meeting the goal will be tough, especially if Mirais are slow to materialize here. I would be very interested in learning whether they are buying any ZEV credits from EV manufacturers (Tesla, Nissan?); that would be pretty ironic given their stated disdain for EVs.

Does anybody have any information on this topic?

I've heard (on a recent EV meeting) Toyota got another meeting with Tesla for another series of carb complient EV cars and Tesla basically gave them the finger.
just a rumor though

Not even a good rumor.

 

[TonyWilliams]

As far as Toyota and Tesla are concerned, there is plenty of blame to go around.

Toyota famously insisted on the parking pawl (which required a different gear box casting, since Tesla doesn't use a parking pawl). Obviously, there were other issues from Toyota.

But, Tesla did not ultimately deliver the trouble-free hardware that Toyota paid them $100 million for.

 

[fromport]

A study of energy use in a community near Stanford finds that all-electric battery cars offer a more affordable way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions than cars powered by hydrogen.

http://news.stanford.edu/2016/11/14...choice-reducing-emissions-fuel-cell-vehicles/