Toyota Sees Underwhelming Future for All Electric Cars

[rav4buyer]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303918804579107213728805086.html Requires subscription looks like

WASHINGTON—Toyota Motor Corp. 7203.TO -2.64% is committed to hybrid, gasoline-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to displace the use of gasoline, said Takeshi Uchiyamada, chairman of the world's largest auto maker.

Reuters
Toyota Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada addressed the Economic Club of Washington Monday.

"The reason why Toyota doesn't introduce any major [all-electric product] is because we do not believe there is a market to accept it," Mr. Uchiyamada said in an interview following a speech on Monday at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

Mr. Uchiyamada said he thinks electric vehicles require "two breakthroughs" on battery technology before they are viable as replacements for gasoline or hybrid-electric vehicles.

Mr. Uchiyamada, 67, took over as chairman of the company in June of this year, following Fujio Cho, who had been chairman since 2006. Mr. Uchiyamada had been running Toyota's product development and is often called the father of the Prius because his team was charged with developing the hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle.

"Some people say hybrid vehicles such as the Prius are only a bridge to the future," Mr. Uchiyamada said in his speech. "But we think it could be a long bridge and a very sturdy one. There are many more gains we can achieve with hybrids."

He said he isn't concerned Toyota will be left behind if the world becomes enamored with electric vehicles. Hybrid gasoline-electric technology "encompasses all of the technologies required to make an electric vehicle," he said.

Toyota is nearly alone in its position on electric vehicles as other big auto makers embrace them. The alliance of Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA already is the world leader in electric vehicles and remains committed to them. Volkswagen AG VOW.XE -1.27% recently pledged to lead the world in electric vehicles by 2018. General Motors Co. GM -1.10% recently said it was working on a low-cost electric vehicle that could travel 200 miles on its battery.

Toyota relies primarily on a relationship with Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA +1.29% to supply the technology for an electric version of its RAV-4 sport-utility vehicle. Mr. Uchiyamada said the partnership hasn't changed the company's dim view of all-electric cars.

Toyota is working on the next-generation Prius and has committed to improving its fuel economy by 10% or more, which would mean producing a combined U.S. fuel economy of 55 miles on a gallon or better of gasoline. Toyota offers more hybrid models than any other auto maker and dominates sales of hybrid vehicles around the globe.

"The Prius has become the most important vehicle for our future," Mr. Uchiyamada said.

Toyota RAV4 electric vehicle is outfitted with a Tesla battery and motor. Toyota Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda struck up a relationship with Tesla in 2010 that exchanges access to Toyota parts for providing the powertrain for the vehicle.

"The first gain was that we were able to introduce a product produced through this partnership—the RAV4 EV," Mr. Uchiyamada said. Toyota engineers, he said, also found working with the young, venture-backed Tesla to be stimulating.

Toyota's management asked his team in 1993 to double fuel economy in a new vehicle meant to serve the 21st century.

The company also has been working on a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that will go on sale in 2015. The plan is to get the price of the vehicle down to an affordable $50,000. Fuel cell vehicles create electricity through a process that runs hydrogen through the fuel cell with only water as a byproduct.

The advantage of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are that they create no pollution but can be refueled quickly and have a range similar to that of gasoline-powered vehicles.

"I personally expect a lot from this hydrogen fuel cell technology. If government and industry work together, this might be part of the long-term solution," he said.

He said governments and fuel companies should lead the creation of hydrogen fueling stations, but that car companies initially would have to be involved in some way in creating fueling stations. In the U.S., he thinks efforts should be focused regionally, such as in California, before spread across the country.

Mr. Uchiyamada said that Mr. Toyoda, the grandson of the founder of Toyota, was doing a great job leading the company, directing it through numerous crisis periods, including the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, financial crisis and the unintended acceleration recall crisis of 2009 and 2010.

"By overcoming those issues he became very resilient and strong as president. Especially, I believe he has made huge progress in the areas of risk management and decision making," said Mr. Uchiyamada. "More than that, the most wonderful thing about him being president is he himself is a car lover. I think that is good for the business and to heighten motivation for the people who work for the company."

 

[Charlestonleafer]

I think he may be wrong. The Prius EV would probably be the best selling of all EV's available today. They could easily add it to the Prius family, market it with all of the other members, and come out on top. I suspect the real issue may be profit margin.

 

[Dianne]

I'd love to see the Prius EV or Prius v wagon EV!
Wish we could make a Sienna EV or even a truck EV. Damn that'd sell like wildfire.

 

[miimura]

Sienna PHEV makes good sense today. However, Toyota's FWD hybrid system is not strong enough for a vehicle that big. RX450h and Highlander use both axles to get enough electric power to the road. As it is today Toyota doesn't believe in bigger batteries. The Plug-In Accord powertrain in an Odyssey makes some sense if they give it even more battery - like 20 miles all electric range.

 

[cossie1600]

Rx450h can come in fwd....

 

[Philly RAV4 EV]

To all out of state buyers or potential buyers, remember this " TOYOTA is the ENEMY

 

[miimura]

Rx450h can come in fwd....

Ok, true. The Toyota hybrids all still have much less electric power to the road than the new Honda Accord Hybrid system.

 

[elmoll]

My first reaction to this was to sell my RAV. Even though I knew Toyota was not really on board with electrics (hence RAV being only a compliance car). The only thing stopping me is that there aren't that many great EV's right now. I guess I'll look at the i3 and B-class, still seems that the range on those won't even come close to the RAV. I would much prefer to buy a car from a company committed to electric which only seems to be Tesla, Nissan, and GM.

 

[evbuddy]

not sure if benz is anymore committed than toyota. i think b-class electric is also a compliance car.

BMW I3 looks like a nice option and BMW is committed.

Wonder why Toyota invested in Tesla...May be it is purely a financial investment.

 

[miimura]

Unless you're really into the whole Benz thing, the B-Class is no better than RAV4EV. Same charger, same lack of DCFC, and yet has a nearly Leaf-sized battery. If you like lots of buttons, Benz has you covered. Maybe they'll even backlight the steering wheel buttons. Enough sarcasm....
If the B-Class EV had at least 35kWh of usable battery and some sort of fast charge capability that might eventually be useful in the real world, I might have considered trading my RAV for one. The SAE Combo connector that allows J-1772 and DC Fast Charge on the same vehicle inlet qualifies as "eventually useful" in my book.

Toyota is not stupid. They wanted to make sure they had their hands in Tesla's cookie jar. They just won't build a car in volume that has drastically lower margins than the rest of their products. They also can't take risk on batteries like others have. They produce very large quantities of batteries for hybrids, but have been slow to transition them to clearly better Lithium Ion packs. Look at the terrible position Mitsubishi is in now - Outlander PHEV demand is far outstripping demand and they can't ramp up because they are stuck with their only qualified battery that is made by their JV company with GS Yuasa. Also, Nissan can't ramp up Leaf battery production because the anode material is production constrained or extremely long lead time.

 

[cwerdna]

As much as you might not like Toyota's stance, people should look at hybrid and plug-in car sales figures along w/the take rate at places like the below.

http://www.hybridcars.com/august-2013-dashboard/ - 3.54% hybrid take rate, plug-in (EVs and PHEVs): 0.76%

http://www.hybridcars.com/december-2012-dashboard
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/01/2012-usa-auto-sales-rankings-by-model7.html

That 3.54% is after the Prius and Insight have been on sale in the US for ~13 years and there are WAY more hybrid choices now. Even to do this day, there's all sorts of anti-hybrid FUD and misinformation (I hear it ALL the time). Much of those same folks (some are idiots) extend that garbage to EVs and PHEVs. :roll: Problem is EVs have range limitations that hybrids don't have and high upfront costs (current Insight and Prius c start at under $20K).

 

[Tadol]

I think only looking at sales numbers is a little like looking backwards - interesting, but not the whole story. Again, I may be wrong, but i believe that the long term costs of hybrids is going to start becoming more of an issue - theres the general issues with a gas motor, plus the technology involved in swapping back and forth, plus the battery and electrical issues and charging issues and ?? Some of these hybrids really are some pretty complicated engineering shoved into some very small spaces, and troubleshooting and repair costs are gonna really add up as they age. I'm interested in seeing the operating and maintenance costs on hybrids as more of them roll over the 100k mile mark, plus what the market thinks of their resale value - and i'm even more interested in seeing that compared to our EVs - I mean, I hope I made the right choice. Ideally, thats the kind of info that will start to steer this market, especially as range anxiety gets reduced. But we just won't know much for another 2, 3, 5 years maybe?

 

[cossie1600]

You apparently have not been seeing how reliable the priuses are

 

[EVBill]

You apparently have not been seeing how reliable the priuses are

A friend at work has over 300K miles on his Prius and it's still going strong with only the normal maintenance costs.

In terms of electric drivetrains don't forget about the thousands if not millions of trolley buses around the world that have electric motors and use overhead wires.

 

[cwerdna]

You apparently have not been seeing how reliable the priuses are

Yep. Tadol seems to be spouting Prius misinformation. See http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Lifespan/Operating_costs, along w/the records of the 04 and '10 Priuses at http://avt.inl.gov/hev.shtml.

 

[yblaser]

Tadol seems to be spouting Prius misinformation.

He made no mention of the Prius or its reliability. I think he was sincerely asking a legitimate question.

 

[cwerdna]

Tadol seems to be spouting Prius misinformation.

He made no mention of the Prius or its reliability. I think he was sincerely asking a legitimate question.

Re-read his post. It's full of hybrid FUD and misinformation.

If he looked at my links and also looked at info on the power split device that's part of Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive (e.g. http://eahart.com/prius/psd/, hybrid articles at http://autoshop101.com/autoshop15.html and http://prius.ecrostech.com/original/PriusFrames.htm). Priuses have had very good reliability records in Consumer Reports as well. FWD HSD hybrids have a single planetary gearset and 2 motor/generators integrated into the PSD (transaxle). There are no clutch packs, torque converter, tiny fluid passages found in an automatic transmission, shift solenoids, etc. HSD hybrids have no alternator nor dedicated starter motor. Current HSD hybrids also have no belts. And, the brakes last forever due to regen.

He can compare what the power split device looks like vs. automatic transmissions below.
https://picasaweb.google.com/105684180251177299188/PriusConnectionSanFrancisco2009?authkey=Gv1sRgCILH8tvp-8_pjQE
https://picasaweb.google.com/105684180251177299188/TokyoMotorShow09Parts?authkey=Gv1sRgCJ3aqv3yvIb-zQE
https://picasaweb.google.com/105684180251177299188/TokyoMotorShow05Parts?authkey=Gv1sRgCLyZ2MT70fekggE

Completely disagree w/his FUD w/examples like the 1 million km Prius taxi and 2 fas 4 u's 465K mile 09 Prius that he traded for a Prius v wagon in early 2012. That '12 Prius v wagon is now past 235K miles (http://priuschat.com/threads/prius-v-200-000-miles-club.128127/#post-1878937). He can see the maintenance records and repair history for Toyota hybrids taken to 160K miles. I could go on and on...

 

[yblaser]

Re-read his post. It's full of hybrid FUD and misinformation.

I read his post and I read your post. I don't understand why you are attacking the guy. Again, he did not make any assertions about the reliability of the Prius. He just stated that he would like to see reliability data and his concern prompted him to buy a fully electric. You provided some examples, thank you. The guy bought an EV for christ's sake; I dont' think he is trying to undermine the future of electric (including hybrids) vehicles nor am I.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Ok, guys, I'm going to lock this thread for a bit.